Syria Erupts Again

The civil war in Syria is suddenly escalating. As of the writing of this essay, rebel forces had overtaken the city of Aleppo.

A complicated web of countries including Turkey, the United States, Israel, Iraq, Iran, and Russia continue to vie for influence.

The Syrian regime under Bashar al-Assad is sustained primarily via support from Iran and Russia, and the current violence has resulted from their vastly weakened positions due to costly wars in Israel and Ukraine, respectively. Hezbollah, Iran’s main proxy in Syria, had relocated troops to Lebanon to fight Israel.

The US has around 900 forces stationed in Syria, working with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which control around one-third of the country in the East. US efforts are mostly to combat ISIS which had established a presence in Syria.

While the prospects for a better future for Syria may seem remote, what happens there still matters to the US. It is worth examining the context and why.

Brief History of Syria

Modern Syria was formed following the French Mandate, which ended in 1946. The next 25 years were marked by military and political conflict. Hafez al-Assad became ruler in 1970 through a series of military coups and led Syria until his death in 2000. His son, Bashar al-Assad, succeeded him and continues to govern Syria as a dictator.

Syria is a diverse country. Its pre-civil war population of ~23 million was 74% Sunni Muslim; 13% Alawi, Ismaili, and Shia Muslim; 10% Christian; and 3% Druze.

The civil war started in 2011 resulting from the failed Arab Spring uprising and the government’s harsh response. Assad, an Alawite, stoked sectarian conflict to divide his opposition and used chemical weapons on his people.

Current Situation in Syria

The opposition forces are led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a terrorist group that is an offshoot of al-Qaeda. A hypothetical in which the opposition forces remove Assad from power and take control puts terrorists in a prominent position with access to Syria’s chemical weapons.

The US-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces are a multi-ethnic coalition of Kurdish, Christian, and Arab fighters. They adhere to a system of democracy via local councils, and are mostly interested in recognition of their autonomous region.

Turkey has been active in Syria, battling Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) units within the Syrian Democratic Forces, which are designated by the US, Turkey, and others as a terrorist organization. The PKK has waged a longstanding insurgency against Turkey in its efforts to create an independent Kurdish state. US support for SDF creates risk of escalating conflict with Turkey. Turkey also houses 3 million Syrian refugees.

Israel has been active, too, to prevent Iran and its proxy Hezbollah from using Syria as a corridor to pass weapons to Lebanon to attack Israel. Shia-led Iraq, on the other hand, has been active to help stabilize the Assad regime.

Why the Conflict Matters for the US

Amid this complicated web of interdependencies it would be easy for the US to throw its hands in the air and walk away. US troops are coming under greater attack: the Pentagon has estimated 125 times since October 2023.

One common refrain is that Syria is an artificial construct drawn by Europeans that does not reflect the actual ethnic and religious reality on the ground, and this is why it has struggled to create a singular national identity.

Whether the US retains troops in Syria or not, it still has a vested interest in the outcome of this highly complex situation.

First, limiting Iranian influence in the Middle East is in America’s national security interest. Under Iran’s theocratic regime, a strong Iran harms America.

Take just two examples. Among the 254 hostages taken by Hamas on October 7, 12 were Americans. And Iranian-backed Houthis terrorize global shipping. Around 10% of global trade passes through the Red Sea. A recent US military report indicated a 90% drop in container shipping through the corridor, increasing costs for everyone.

Second, the civil war in Syria has generated 6.3 million asylum seekers. Turkey is the largest host at 3 million refugees. Around 1.3 million Syrians are living in Germany. Not only does this create a humanitarian crisis, it put pressure on host countries to care for and integrate these migrants. A 2024 study of integration of migrants into German labor market over 50 years found persistent employment gaps.

Finally, volatile situations create opportunities to change for the better. Not too long ago at the UN General Assembly, Israel painted a picture of a new blessing available to the Middle East, based on peace and shared prosperity. With the Iran and Syria regimes historically weakened, there is the possibility of a grand shift with more moderate forces emerging. The US should not ignore this.

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